{"id":234067,"date":"2026-10-09T11:05:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/?p=234067"},"modified":"2026-10-09T11:05:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:05:19","slug":"winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\/","title":{"rendered":"NoVA\u2019s Drought Is Improving + Winter Could Be a Wet One"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"custom_featured_image\" style=\"display:none;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--800x533.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image\" alt=\"nova rain 2026\" style=\"margin-bottom: 15px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--800x533.png 800w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--585x390.png 585w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--263x175.png 263w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026-.png 1000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/div><div id=\"custom_category\" style=\"display:none;\">Weather Watch<\/div><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If it feels like we\u2019ve only had rain on the weekends and during our 9-to-5s, you\u2019re not making it up. According to locally collected data, both August and September 2026 were the rainiest on record in recent history.&nbsp; But there is a silver lining to these literal rain clouds: Northern Virginia is officially downgraded from a drought warning to a drought watch.&nbsp; <\/span>A late-September report from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deq.virginia.gov\/home\/showpublisheddocument\/39225\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force<\/a> found enough improvement to recommend moving Northern Virginia from a drought warning to a drought watch. And looking a little farther ahead, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalweather.com\/winter-outlook-models-favor-a-wet-pattern-but-will-it-be-white\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early winter models highlighted by Capital Weather<\/a> are leaning toward a wetter-than-normal winter along the East Coast. <strong>Read on for the latest Northern Virginia drought update + what early forecasts are saying about winter 2026-2027.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234074\" src=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026-.png\" alt=\"nova rain 2026\" width=\"450\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026-.png 1000w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--800x533.png 800w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--585x390.png 585w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026--263x175.png 263w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>The Drought Situation is Looking Better<\/h3>\n<p>After several weeks of rain, Northern Virginia\u2019s drought picture is moving in the right direction. At its September 29th meeting, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deq.virginia.gov\/water\/water-quantity\/drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force<\/a> recommended lowering the Northern Virginia and Northern Piedmont regions from a drought warning to a drought watch. Portions of the Shenandoah region were also recommended for a downgrade.<\/p>\n<p>There is some real rain behind that improvement, too. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deq.virginia.gov\/home\/showpublisheddocument\/39225\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">September drought report<\/a>, large portions of Northern Virginia, Northern Piedmont, and the northern Shenandoah region received between 125% and 150% of normal precipitation during portions of the previous 60- and 90-day periods. Northern Virginia\u2019s water-year precipitation stood at 90.21% of normal as of September 28th, and its regional precipitation indicator had returned to normal status.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Read more:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/haunted-attractions-nova-fall-2026\/\">Northern Virginia Haunted Houses + Spooky Attractions to Visit in 2026<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cocorahs.org\/Content.aspx?page=aboutus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Community Collaborative Rain, Hail + Snow Network<\/a> (CoCoRaHS) is a project sponsored by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Oceanographic + Atmospheric Administration<\/a> (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). It\u2019s a community network of weather observers who report precipitation at their locations. It\u2019s created a nationwide resource about precipitation over time.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234075\" src=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/rain-data-2026.png\" alt=\"rain data 2026\" width=\"450\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/rain-data-2026.png 1000w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/rain-data-2026-800x533.png 800w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/rain-data-2026-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/rain-data-2026-585x390.png 585w, https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/rain-data-2026-263x175.png 263w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><em>Totally depressing weekend rain graph courtesy of (CoCoRaHS)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The station<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/dex.cocorahs.org\/stations\/VA-FXC-1\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> located in Fairfax <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bears out our theory that there were far too many rainy weekends in August and September 2026. According to the data, August had 4 out of 8 weekend days with rain, plus 2 Fridays. September had the same, plus 3 rainy Fridays.&nbsp; <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Those rainy days were part of a larger trend: both August and September 2026 had high amounts of rainfall. August saw 6.16\u201d of rain, and September 4.66\u201d. Per NOAA, the 30-year-average for August is 3.53\u201d and September is 4.16\u201d.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Looking Ahead to Winter&nbsp;<\/h3>\n<p>According to an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalweather.com\/winter-outlook-models-favor-a-wet-pattern-but-will-it-be-white\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 5th winter outlook from Capital Weather<\/a>, seasonal computer models from Canada and Europe are projecting substantially above-normal precipitation along much of the East Coast, including the Washington, D.C. area, for winter 2026-2027.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalweather.com\/winter-outlook-models-favor-a-wet-pattern-but-will-it-be-white\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">historically strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> is one of the big factors behind the wetter signal. El Ni\u00f1o winters can favor increased precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic, which could be helpful this year given the region\u2019s lingering groundwater deficit. The state\u2019s own <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/expert_assessment\/SDO\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seasonal drought outlook<\/a> is also optimistic, favoring additional drought improvement across much of Virginia through the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Capital Weather notes that the same seasonal models forecasting a wet winter generally favor near- to slightly above-normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic. December and January currently look warmer relative to normal than February, meaning plenty of precipitation does not automatically translate to plenty of snow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>See more:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/indoor-play-spaces-kids-northern-virginia\/\">15+ Indoor Playgrounds + Play Spaces for Kids in Northern Virginia<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The biggest factor is whether cold air happens to be in place when storms arrive. That depends heavily on atmospheric patterns like the polar vortex, which forecasters cannot reliably predict months in advance. Strong El Ni\u00f1o winters have also produced just about every possible outcome around D.C., from blockbuster snowstorms to winters that barely required a snow shovel.<\/p>\n<p>If the current models hold, February could have a better shot at combining moisture + cold air than the earlier part of the winter. Colder locations farther west and at higher elevations, particularly in and around the Appalachians, may also have a better chance of turning the projected extra precipitation into snow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Follow @thefairfaxgirl on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/thefairfaxgirl\/\"><span class=\"s2\">Instagram <\/span><\/a>+&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@thefairfaxgirl\"><span class=\"s2\">TikTok<\/span><\/a> for the latest Northern Virginia updates, and check out our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/events\/\"><span class=\"s2\">events calendar<\/span><\/a>, which has over 100+ events weekly to peruse. Sign up for our newsletter <a href=\"https:\/\/thefairfaxgirl.myflodesk.com\/launch2025\"><span class=\"s3\">here<\/span><\/a><\/span><span class=\"s4\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"categories\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/thefairfaxgirl.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stories<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weather WatchIf it feels like we\u2019ve only had rain on the weekends and during our 9-to-5s, you\u2019re not making it up. According&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":424,"featured_media":234074,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[9479,9660,9259,9593,9728,9263],"tags":[9707,9845,9731,9930],"class_list":["post-234067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events-news","category-news","category-seasons","category-local-girl-rss-feed","category-virginia","category-winter","tag-news","tag-tlg","tag-virginia","tag-weather"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.6 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NoVA\u2019s Drought Is Improving + Winter Could Be a Wet One - The Fairfax Girl<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Northern Virginia&#039;s drought status has improved, and the inter outlook could be wet + snowy due to El Nino patterns.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NoVA\u2019s Drought Is Improving + Winter Could Be a Wet One\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Northern Virginia&#039;s drought status has improved, and the inter outlook could be wet + snowy due to El Nino patterns.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Fairfax Girl\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-09T15:05:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/thelocalgirl.com\/fairfax\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/10\/nova-rain-2026-.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"666\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"The Fairfax Girl Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Fairfax Girl Team\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"The Fairfax Girl Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f22581b1b36ea992c255acc66bca0c56\"},\"headline\":\"NoVA\u2019s Drought Is Improving + Winter Could Be a Wet One\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-09T15:05:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":724,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/nova-rain-2026-.png\",\"keywords\":[\"News\",\"The Local Girl\",\"virginia\",\"weather\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Events + News\",\"News\",\"Seasons\",\"The Local Girl\",\"Virginia\",\"Winter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thelocalgirl.com\\\/fairfax\\\/winter-2026-outlook-northern-virginia\\\/\",\"name\":\"NoVA\u2019s Drought Is Improving + Winter Could Be a Wet One - 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